After suffering another soft-tissue injury, the should-be star third baseman will begin his 2025 campaign on the 10-day injured list. Given his injury-prone nature, should the Twins stop planning on Royce Lewis being a primary offensive contributor?
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On Sunday, Minnesota Twins third baseman Royce Lewis pulled up while running out a groundball to dep third base, in the second inning of a spring training exhibition game against the Boston Red Sox. Lewis underwent an MRI and was diagnosed witha "moderate" hamstring strainthat will keep him out for Opening Day—and perhaps for the first month or more of the season. Those who follow the club have familiarized themselves with Lewis needing to miss time due to soft-tissue injuries. He's had four separate IL stints over the past two seasons, due to straining his quadriceps, adductor, hamstring, and oblique.
Lewis, 25, has blossomed into a core member of Minnesota's position player corps. He functions as a high-OBP, power-hitting cog in the middle of the club's lineup, alongside fellow above-average bats Matt Wallner, Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, and Trevor Larnach. However, his frequent, extended absences create a significant vacancy, forcing the club to provide ample plate appearances to role players like José Miranda, Willi Castro, and Austin Martin.
From a depth perspective, Minnesota is prepared to handle Lewis's current and potential future absences. As noted, Miranda and Castro possess the skillset necessary to fill the position for an extended stretch. Former top prospect Brooks Lee is an intriguing candidate to fill in at the position, too, though he could begin the season entrenched as the everyday second baseman. Since Lewis made his MLB debut in 2022, the Twins have rostered players like Miranda, Castro, Jorge Polanco, Kyle Farmer, Donovan Solano, and others who could fill in at third base when the injury-prone young star missed time. However, their roster construction process was less about rostering viable Lewis replacements and more about overall infield flexibility.
Minnesota’s ability to succeed in 2025 will depend on Correa, Buxton, and Lewis’s ability to stay healthy and perform at or above their career rates. Relying on Correa and Buxton is a sound decision. Despite missing significant time in recent seasons, the two can be trusted to perform at an above-average rate in the field and at the plate when healthy. Just as importantly, the team has no choice. They've already made big, long-term financial commitments to both Correa and Buxton. Given the lack of durability for all three players, though, it's hard to justify making a third investment (even if it's mostly of playing time, for now) of the same kind.
It's also easier to accept Buxton and Correa's injury frustrations, because they're such well-rounded players: good hitters andstrong defenders at premium positions. On the other hand, Lewis has long possessed limited range and a lackluster glove in the hot corner. Still, the club could always count on him to thrive at the plate in limited sample sizes—until the second half of last season.
Over 226 plate appearances from Jul. 26 through Sept. 29, Lewis hit .207/.270/.350, with 42 hits, 11 doubles, six home runs, a 24.8% strikeout rate, and 74 wRC+. The 25-year-old’s underwhelming performance at the plate resulted in a -0.77 Win Probability Added and being a driving force in the lineup’s late-season collapse. Since he has netted only 605 total plate appearances heading into his fourth major-league season, it’s nearly impossible to know what type of contributor Lewis is. Is he the star who led the organization to their first postseason victory in 19 years; the middling bat who performed at a well-below-league average rate (particularly against same-handed pitching) for months last season; or something in-between?
Given his age, limited plate appearances, and substantial injury history, it would be malpractice to provide a declarative answer. Twins Territory has grown enamored with Lewis and his potential. But at times, it feels like that’s all it is: potential. His exceptionality exists more in theory than in reality. Acknowledging this uncertainty and his inability to stay on the field, Lewis must be decentered from the Twins' plans. Instead of penciling him as the everyday third baseman, the club should instead treat any contribution they receive from him as a welcome bonus, and make him win a spot (third base, second base, or potentially first base/designated hitter) when he performs at an average-plus rate offensively or demonstrates some semblance of durability.
Minnesota’s core position players are Correa, Buxton, Wallner, Larnach, Castro, and Ryan Jeffers. They have earned that honor by consistently performing well and/or providing volume, versatility and defensive value. High-upside players like Lee, Miranda, Edouard Julien, Luke Keaschall, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Walker Jenkins could join the mix soon. The Twins' position-player talent pool is rich. Obviously, Lewis could be a key figure in that group. When performing at his best, he is a dynamic power bat and a genuine difference-maker. Alas, he's rarely performing at all, and even when he is, it's not always at his best.
Follow Cody Schoenmann on Twitter: codyschoenmann
